Monday, November 13, 2017

High School Pathway Demographics

By request, this is a thread to discuss demographic and enrollment issues with the proposed High School Pathways. I'll try to collect data here as well.


Data from the recent HCS AC email:  This is not at all consistent with the previous district data below.  The only explanation for the count change was a huge shift in the 9th grade cohort and inaccuracies in prev. counts.

That's visible in the P223 reports for Roosevelt (up 70+ in 9th) but less so in Garfield/Ballard (both up 25+ in 9th) .

Current Cohort Data

Ballard:
9th 46
10th 33
11th 28
12th 22

Roosevelt: 
9th: 73
10th: 31
11th: 27
12th: 22

Ingraham:
9th 101
10th 120
11th 86
12th 83

Garfield:
Still waiting on real data but you can infer from the overall numbers  that about 147 North kids go there and the total is  about 572 kids. There are about 200 9th graders not full accounted for above.


Overall HC cohorts from 2016-2017.  Note: the huge jump in the now 9th grade cohort.



See:
http://www.seattleschools.org/UserFiles/Servers/Server_543/File/District/Departments/Enrollment%20Planning/Reports/Annual%20Enrollment/2016-17/Section%209.pdf  for more interesting numbers.

Data from the board retreat this year:





46 comments:

Anonymous said...

Am I reading correctly that last year there were more AL/HC students at HIMS than at Garfield?

Fix AL

Anonymous said...

Yes. Hamilton was more than half HCC.

Am I reading it correctly that there are about 50 or so HC-eligible kids per grade (assuming 9th and 10th grade levels are a more accurate picture of the new status quo) at Ballard and RHS now, including those neighborhood kids who left for an HCC site? Since both Roosevelt and Ballard boundaries will be significantly shrunk when Lincoln reopens, those numbers would likely decrease a decent bit. Will there even be enough of a cohort at those presumed-to-be ok HCC pathway sites?

It looks like Garfield would remain the largest HCC pathway site, at least in the short term, while Ingraham would have the largest number of HC students overall. I say short term because some HC students may start to shun Garfield due to its unwelcoming anti-HCC posture, and parents looking for advanced offerings for their kids will have less and less incentive to move into the Garfield AA when there are other options. The numbers for the WSeattle and CS pathways, however, are abysmal no matter how you look at it. I can only imagine how that discussion about what sort of advanced offerings will be available will go, done after the board approves their stupid plan...

Anonymous said...

Why on earth would the board approve the plan? It only benefits Director Geary's people. I'm not sure her negotiation skills are THAT stellar.

Slow Down

Anonymous said...

There are only about 25 HC students in 9th and 10th grades at Ballard & Roosevelt in that chart. The larger numbers represent students who left for Garfield or Ingraham.

Fairmount Parent

Anonymous said...

But for 2018 RHS 9th grade class AL/HC numbers, you would also need to see how many AL/HC qualified students are in 8th grade at Eckstein. Anyone have that data? It looks like the 2019-2020 9th grade class has a bubble! Lots of AL students in the pipeline folks.

Fix AL

Anonymous said...

I think those 2019 9th graders would be the 5th graders on this chart(2015-2016)- hard to say if it is a bubble if we don't know how many joined in 6th, which is typically a big add year.

I am not sure Eckstein hc numbers help with class availability/cohort numbers really, since they won't have been accelerated in science (though many are in other subjects).

NJP

Anonymous said...

@ Fairmount Parent, yes, but under the proposed plan they wouldn't be leaving for Garfield anymore. Some might apply to and get into Ingraham, but surely not all.

Anonymous said...

" Since both Roosevelt and Ballard boundaries will be significantly shrunk when Lincoln reopens, those numbers would likely decrease a decent bit. Will there even be enough of a cohort at those presumed-to-be ok HCC pathway sites? "

Just using BHS as an example, I have concerns. NW students have not been choosing Garfield anyway past couple of years, majority have been choosing mostly Ingraham and less so Ballard. BHS would see an increase in HC due to middle school baby boom, but who knows if that will be sustained. Also, raising cap at Ingraham influences BHS HC enrollment.

Anyway, the increase in HC will be negligible as compared to the loss of 700 students who also take AP classes.

Currently BHS will tell you they offer 2-3 sections of AP courses and some kids can take up to around 5-6 AP classes, mostly taking them senior year. So all will be fine! Right?

However, the H2 proposal has BHS shrinking and losing 700 students in Magnolia & QA. That means loss of AP classes, as well as sections. Try making a schedule with only 1 section of a core AP subject when it conflicts with another AP subject you need.

At BHS there are also academies that draw the general ed population but do not align with the HC kids who will come in having taken classes already like Bio. These academies are scheduled as a program so classes don't conflict.

If the 5 sites are approved, parents will have to deal with the aftermath of kids navigating new terrain of schools having few sections, conflicting schedules and perhaps having great difficulty getting the advanced coursework they need for a basic education.

Therefore, if this plan moves forward, all parents should be advocating to ALL the proposed sites principals & staff to do the program planning to truly create an "HC pathway" at the schools.

This entails budgeting to ensure core AP courses will run, scheduling AP classes to align with HC previous coursework and be complementary, providing counselors with HC pathway course selection sheets etc.

Garfield (is the only school) that currently offers course selection sheets for an HC pathway or for students applying to select 4 year colleges.
-L

Anonymous said...



Warning those numbers are too old (Jan/2016)to have meaning.

Anonymous said...

How many HC students retake Bio in high school because their grade was less than stellar in their 8th grade bio "weed out/grade on the curve" class?

bio or BIO

Anonymous said...

they take ap bio

Anonymous said...

The students entering as 9th graders in 2019-20 would have been in 5th grade when the above data was tabulated.

The bio question is somewhat off topic...but I'd add:

Where is 8th grade bio a weed out class?

If a school offers AP Biology or another advanced biology class, a student takes biology, but most likely at the more advanced level. At IHS, biology is one of the few sciences offered at an HL level, so HC students may end up taking 3 years of biology (1 yr in MS, 2 yrs in HS). If going private, some high schools don't acknowledge a course taken in MS and students may have little choice but to retake biology.

If you don't take HS credit for MS classes, MS grades disappear. You start HS with a clean slate. It is generally advised that students don't take HS credit for 8th grade biology unless they plan to graduate early, because it can bring down their weighted GPA (MS classes get no honors weighting) and block them from taking more advanced classes in HS. A school could say, you already have 4 science credits and they don't need to provide science in senior year.

Anonymous said...

I concur, very few to basically none retake voluntarily. The grade does not stick unless you want it to, and it is not advisable to let it stick even if you get an A. Better to take an honors/AP class to get the extra gpa point. My student is in biology at JAMS, and it has been the best course of any kind of that child's scholastic career. Probably not there.

NJP

Doctor Hu said...

“Actually, It would be REALLY interesting to see the actual data of where the CURRENT kids attending Garfield live from past couple of years. Is this available?” Anonymous, 11/7 @ 1.23 pm

Yes! This actual data can be reconstructed in complementary ways from two published sources:
(1) the home middle school service areas of every HCC enrolled high school student enrolled in the Garfield pathway or in the Ingraham IB option; and
(2) the non HCC specific home high school attendance areas of every Garfield and of every Ingraham high school student.

After I compiled the following detailed HCC high school pathway estimates based on actual data in the 2016-17 SPS enrollment reports, poster Not Optimal kindly linked unofficial Advanced Learning numbers from the prior 2015-16 school year -- in the January 2016 document which I had not then seen that now opens this thread. As you can see, my more detailed 2016-17 estimates are fully borne out by those earlier 2015-16 figures. From another poster we also have a later June 2017 Advanced Learning report of higher HCC enrollment numbers, which may be describing the current 2017-18 school year. But please do not assume that from 2018-19 forward the HC cohort will continue to grow, because the newly announced appeals restrictions will then limit the cohort size. Over time the proposed HC pathways may become significantly smaller than the numbers shown below.

2015-16 figures: 518 + 299 HC IB = 817 HC enrolled + 167 HC eligible = 974 students 9-12
2016-17 figures: 575 + 315 HC IB = 890 HC enrolled + 233? HC eligible = 1123 students 9-12
2017-18 figures: 601 + 373 HC IB = 974 HC enrolled + 233? HC eligible = 1207 students 9-12
2018-19 figures: ? because of new appeals restrictions

The Annual Enrollment Report for 2016-17 records 890 HCC students enrolled altogether between the all-city Garfield pathway and the Ingraham IB option (almost double the 494 HCC high school students reported six years earlier in the 2011-12 Annual Enrollment Report). Based on last year's 2016-17 figures, these are my rounded estimates (to the nearest 5) showing the size of EACH proposed HC pathway:

HCS ADVISORY 2 + 1 PLAN:
North HC Pathway. . . . . . . . . 430 students 9-12 = 730 - 300 HC IB
South HC Pathway. . . . . . . . . 355 students 9-12 = 370 - 15 HC IB
Ingraham HC IB Option . . . . . . 315 HC IB
2016-17 figures: 575 + 208 HC eligible + 315 HC IB = 1098 students 9-12

SPS STAFF 5 + 1 PLAN:
Ballard Regional HC Pathway . . . 140 students 9-12 = 270 - 130 HC IB
Roosevelt Regional HC Pathway . . 140 students 9-12 = 310 - 170 HC IB
Franklin Regional HC Pathway. . . 100 students 9-12 = 105 - 6 HC IB
West Seattle Regional HC Pathway. 110 students 9-12 = 113 - 3 HC IB
Garfield Regional HC Pathway. . . 315 students 9-12 = 325 - 10 HC IB
Ingraham HC IB Option . . . . . . 315 HC IB
2016-17 figures: 575 + 233 HC eligible + 315 HC IB = 1123 students 9-12

Method: From enrollments of non-attendance area high school students at Garfield, I subtracted open choice assignments because those are not HCC pathway assignments. However counts of non-attendance area high school students at Ingraham are overinclusive because they also include non-HCC IB students. Table 6-C, "High School Open Choice Assignments by Home Attendance Area," notes: "*Garfield is an HCC pathway (designated) school so HCC students are not included as choice students. **Ingraham includes HCC choice students, who are considered as new choice assignments." October 2017 monthly enrollment report includes notation: “High Schools only: the Total Student Count includes full-time Running Start students.”

Doctor Hu said...

Here are the home middle schools of all HCC enrolled high schoolers in 2016-17, and also the home high schools of all students attending Garfield and Ingraham during that school year:

HCS ADVISORY 2 + 1 PLAN:
North Seattle Lincoln Pathway proposed by HCS Advisory Committee, from 2016-17 Annual Enrollment Report:
* 62 McClure + 171 Whitman + Eagle Staff + 89 Hamilton + 137 Eckstein + 61 Jane Addams > 520 high school HC students including HC IB grades 9-12
* 75 Ballard + 16 Ingraham + 81 Roosevelt + 27 Nathan Hale + Lincoln > 199 high school HC students at Garfield grades 9-12
* 129 Ballard + Ingraham + [137?] Roosevelt + [31?] Nathan Hale > [297?] high school IB students at Ingraham grades 9-12
* 99 HC eligible high schoolers attend Ballard HS, 91 attend Roosevelt HS (2017 figures), 18 attend Nathan Hale HS (2016 figure)

South Seattle Garfield Pathway proposed by HCS Advisory Committee, from 2016-17 Annual Enrollment Report:
* 71 Mercer + 32 Aki Kurose + 74 Madison + 22 Denny + 171 Washington + Meany > 370 high school HC students including HC IB grades 9-12
* 87 Franklin + 42 Rainier Beach + 73 West Seattle + 22 Chief Sealth + [171] Garfield > 395 high school HC students at Garfield grades 9-12
* 4 Franklin + 2 Rainier Beach + 2 West Seattle + 1 Chief Sealth + 9 Garfield > 18 high school IB students at Ingraham grades 9-12
* 7 HC eligible high schoolers attend Franklin HS, 1 attends Rainier Beach HS, 7 attend West Seattle HS, 10 attend Chief Sealth International HS (2016 figures)


SPS STAFF 5 + 1 PLAN:
Ballard Regional Pathway proposed by SPS Staff, from 2016-17 Annual Enrollment Report:
* 171 Whitman + Eagle Staff > 171 high school HC students including HC IB grades 9-12
* 75 Ballard + 16 Ingraham > 91 high school HC students at Garfield grades 9-12
* 129 Ballard + Ingraham > 129 high school IB students at Ingraham grades 9-12
* 99 HC eligible high schoolers attend Ballard HS (2017 figure)

Roosevelt Regional Pathway proposed by SPS Staff, from 2016-17 Annual Enrollment Report:
* 137 Eckstein + 61 Jane Addams > 198 high school HC students including HC IB grades 9-12
* 81 Roosevelt + 27 Nathan Hale > 108 high school HC students at Garfield grades 9-12
* [137?] Roosevelt + [31?] Nathan Hale > [168?] high school HC IB students at Ingraham grades 9-12 [ie, 151/79/230 - 62 [?] Ingraham HC]
* 91 HC eligible high schoolers attend Roosevelt HS (2017 figure), 18 attend Nathan Hale HS (2016 figure)

Franklin Regional Pathway proposed by SPS Staff, from 2016-17 Annual Enrollment Report:
*71 Mercer + 32 Aki Kurose > 103 high school HC students including HC IB grades 9-12
*87 Franklin + 42 Rainier Beach > 129 high school HC students at Garfield grades 9-12
* 4 Franklin + 2 Rainier Beach > 6 high school IB students at Ingraham grades 9-12
* 7 HC eligible high schoolers attend Franklin HS, 1 attends Rainier Beach HS (2016 figures)

West Seattle Regional Pathway proposed by SPS Staff, from 2016-17 Annual Enrollment Report:
*74 Madison + 22 Denny > 96 high school HC students including HC IB grades 9-12
*73 West Seattle + 22 Chief Sealth > 95 high school HC students at Garfield grades 9-12
* 2 West Seattle + 1 Chief Sealth > 3 high school IB students at Ingraham grades 9-12
* 7 HC eligible high schoolers attend West Seattle HS, 10 attend Chief Sealth International HS (2016 figures)

Garfield Regional Pathway proposed by SPS Staff, from 2016-17 Annual Enrollment Report:
*171 Washington + 89 Hamilton + 62 McClure + Meany > 322 high school HC students including HC IB grades 9-12
* [171] Garfield + [151] Lincoln > [322] high school HC students at Garfield grades 9-12
* 9 + Lincoln > 9 high school IB students at Ingraham grades 9-12

Doctor Hu said...

For those who are curious, here is a more detailed summary of all the above proposed HC pathways.

Figures based on 2016-17 HCC Enrollment

CURRENT PLAN
All-City Pathway 575 (+ 315 IB) = 890 total HCC + [233?] HC eligible

HCC High School Home MS Services / Out of Garfield (+ Ingraham) AA
HCS ADVISORY 2 + 1 PLAN:
North Pathway 223 (+ 297 IB) + [208?] HC eligible / 199 (+ 297 IB) + [208?]

South Pathway 352 (+ 18 IB) / 395 (+ 18 IB)
890 total HCC = total 575 (+ 315 IB) + 208 HC eligible = 1098 total / 594 (+ 315 IB) + 208

HCC High School Home MS Services / Out of Garfield (+ Ingraham) AA
SPS STAFF 5 + 1 PLAN:
Ballard Regional Pathway 42 (+ 129 IB) + [99?] HC eligible / 91 (+ 129 IB) + [99?]
Roosevelt Regional Pathway [30?] (+ [168?] IB) + [109?] HC eligible / 108 (+ [168?] IB) + [109?]

Franklin Regional Pathway 97 (+ 6 IB) + [8?] HC eligible / 129 (+ 6 IB) + [8?]
West Seattle Regional Pathway 93 (+ 3 IB) + [17?] HC eligible / 95 (+ 3 IB) + [17?]
Garfield Regional Pathway 313 (+ 9 IB) / [313?] (+ 9 IB)
890 total HCC = total 575(+ 315 IB) + [233?] HC eligible = 1123 total / 745 (+ 315 IB) + [233?]

These are my sources so that you can find all this published actual data for yourself. Please post your question if you need to verify any step of my methodology.

Sources:

2015-16 Highly Capable Numbers

2017-18 High School HCC Pathways Map

2017-18 Middle School HCC (formerly APP) Pathways Map

2019-20 High School AA Task Force Scenario H version 2 Map

Grades 9-12 HCC Students by Home Service Area and Grade, Annual Enrollment Report: 2016-17 data, Table 9-C

2016-17 Student Density: Enrolled in HCC Grades 9-12 Map

2016-17 Student Density: Eligible for HCC Grades 9-12 Map

Students in High Schools by Attendance Area: Summary, Annual Enrollment Report: 2016-17 data, Table 4-D

All Choice Assignments by Home Attendance Area Grades 9-12, Annual Enrollment Report: 2016-17 data, Table 6-C

Reader post, Anonymous, 11/7 @ 9.47 am & 12.18 & 12.26 pm, reporting Advanced Learning email stating that Ballard has 99 and Roosevelt has 91 HCC eligible but not enrolled students. Also giving Advanced Learning estimate of 974 HCC students, 601 Garfield + 373 Ingraham IB.

Anonymous said...

But please do not assume that from 2018-19 forward the HC cohort will continue to grow, because the newly announced appeals restrictions will then limit the cohort size.

Since we don't have numbers indicating what % qualify based on appeal, or what % meet the new thresholds with their appeal, how do we know? And at what grades are most students qualifying? 1st? 3rd? 6th? The AL report (Feb 2017?) indicated around 500 appeals with about half of them successful (for HC?), and that was out of some 5000 (?) tested. It did not indicate how many of those appealed with private testing, district testing, or some other information. What percent were on the threshold and will qualify the following year after another round of district testing?

Anonymous said...

Good point. I suspect many of those who appeal are just trying to expedite the process and get their kid in HCC a year sooner, knowing there's a good chance they'd qualify via the district's testing on a subsequent attempt. In many ways testing each year is analogous to getting in on appeal, no? It's a retake of the same test, as opposed to a "retake" using a different test.

Anonymous said...

@ bio or BIO, huh? Are you hearing that many kids do that? My son's sense was that the middle school HCC bio class was simplistic and the EOC very easy to pass. Are pass rates on the EOC bio exam available specifically for HCC 8th graders? Is there some indication they don't do well--and if so, is that the case across HCC sites or is it a school-specific problem? I've certainly never heard that 8th grade bio was a "weed out" class. Bizarre.

Any HCC student could opt to retake basic bio in high school, but I think most would be bored. Maybe if they're looking to coast, or maybe if their schedule doesn't allow for AP Bio or something.

wacky

Anonymous said...

@L- "However, the H2 proposal has BHS shrinking and losing 700 students in Magnolia & QA. That means loss of AP classes, as well as sections. Try making a schedule with only 1 section of a core AP subject when it conflicts with another AP subject you need."

I spoke to the principal at BHS. He stated there will be 1600 students at BHS, the 1337 Hv2 map only represent those in its (newly proposed) high school boundary. There is info parents are not privy, which he did not share, but assured me this would be the case. Maybe they will allow opt in from elsewhere? I don't know. He assured me that when BHS had only 1600 students in past & actually less HC students, they actually offered more sections of AP classes! Also, he reiterated HC students do have priority registration at BHS due to state law requirements for providing access to advanced coursework for a basic education. This year due to over enrollment it is creating challenges in scheduling.

However, past 13 years he was Principal he assured me HC had ample access to AP & CIH courses as was enough sections without having to special schedule as to not conflict.

Currently only the "pathway programs" which are truly cohort based and closed to students not chosen via lottery (Biotech etc) are scheduled so as not to conflict.

If the board approves the current SPS proposed plan, I suggested that a new "HC/selective college pathway" (but open to all students) of AP courses scheduled (not to conflict) like the other pathway programs would be helpful marketing to help parents understand Ballard could indeed offer a solid academic pathway program. But it does sound like he feels they can offer it regardless.
-LMS

Doctor Hu said...

"People seem to think Ballard & Roosevelt will have more HC students than Franklin or W Seattle in the 5 pathway plus Ingraham plan. HC numbers are actually similar for all of those schools & all will have VERY SMALL numbers. Ingraham draws HC students from Roosevelt & Ballard which your stats illustrate. Ballard, Roosevelt, W Seattle & Franklin will all have small cohorts ([100]-140 total in school, so ONLY 25-[35] kids per grade)."

K, you have hit the nail on the head. Amidst all the confusion, these hard numbers are crystal clear that other than Garfield, none of these staff proposed regional pathways have sufficient students to form a strong cohort with sequential classes.

If the required high school pathway cohort size is 90 per year (360 total), then only the HCS Advisory Committee's 2 + 1 Plan North (430) and South (355) Pathways meet this requirement. None of the SPS Staff's 5 + 1 Plan Regional Pathways qualify.

If the required pathway cohort size is a less optimal 60 per year (240 total), then only the HCS Advisory Committee's 2 + 1 Plan North (430) and South (355) Pathways, and the SPS Staff's 5 + 1 Plan Garfield (315) Regional Pathway meet this requirement. None of the other SPS Staff's 5 + 1 Plan Regional Pathways qualify.

As you notice from the stats, the Ingraham IB option draws HC students from Roosevelt & Ballard: "Ballard, Roosevelt, W Seattle & Franklin will all have small cohorts ([100]-140 total in school, so ONLY 25-[35] kids per grade)." Neither Ballard (140) nor Roosevelt (140) can achieve a pathway cohort size of 90 per year. In order to achieve a smaller pathway cohort size of 60 per year, Ballard would need 100 of its 130 HC IB students (77%) to switch back, and Roosevelt would need 100 of its 170 HC IB students (59%) to switch back, leaving Ingraham with 200 fewer HC IB students.

And the West Seattle (110) and Franklin (100) Regional Pathways proposed in the SPS Staff 5 + 1 Plan would necessarily be so small that they would be pathways in name only.

You note: "Where you see the largest concentration of HC kids in the 5 pathway proposal is Garfield [315]. But it will still be a fraction of what currently exists and course sections will be very limited." As you correctly ask: "The issue is will there be enough students to have enough sections of various AP courses to make schedules easily? HC students are accelerated so when they enter high school they need advanced courses as a next course in sequence. Will AP courses fit together each year so students will not have to repeat courses or take general ed courses instead?"

Doctor Hu said...

The Transition SAP for 2018-19 was to be introduced at today's November 15 regular School Board meeting. Note that Directors Burke and Harris have introduced the following amendment:

Action item No.7:
"Approval of the Student Assignment Transition Plan for 2018-19 (Ops, Nov. 2, for consideration) – Approval of this item would update the Student Assignment Transition Plan for 2018-19.
Amendment 1 - Approval of this item would amend the Student Assignment Transition Plan for 2018-19 to delete assignment pathway changes scheduled for implementation in 2019-20 and combine them with high school boundary approval to be implemented in 2019-20. (Directors Burke and Harris) (11/14 update: this item added)"

Anonymous said...

@LMS, where will the mystery students come from to Ballard? Is the 1600 in 2019 temporarily including Magnolia, QA, and Fremont 11th and 12th graders who won't be reassigned to Lincoln? Ballard HS is poised to shrink and change a lot longer-term if anything close to the current district plans is approved.

Curious

Anonymous said...

@ LMS, while the principal says Ballardoffered plenty of of AP and CIHS classes in the past, my recollection was that they didn't offer AP Calculus BC until recently. I could be wrong, but I'm skeptical of this idea that they can offer everything needed with smaller numbers...

BC?

Anonymous said...

@Curious-- The maps do not include 11th and 12th graders who would likely be grandfathered when Lincoln opens as a 9/10. In addition, numbers coming up from elementary & middle indicate BHS would remain at least at 1600. The principal is actually more concerned with having too many kids down the road again.
@BC- My conversations with this principal illustrate to me he is very on top of things. I urge you to check with him directly about any doubts. He feels extremely confident they can offer a solid pathway and understands the number of sections needed and enrollment in order to do it. He has an HC qualifed child. The challenge has been communicating effectively they can offer a solid pathway to future HC parents. BHS prioritizes HC enrollment in compliance with state law and they utilized this policy this year. This year capacity issues challenged offerings for all students, but I hear the same from Garfield & Roosevelt parents.
-LMS

Anonymous said...

@Curious-- I ended up clarifying the 1600 with him as I was too curious as to how he arrived at 1600 from the Hv2 map 1337.
-LMS

Anonymous said...

Are they introducing pathways tonight or is that delayed until it goes back to the Operations committee in December? Seems odd to introduce if their survey is good until 11/27.

Confused?

Benjamin Leis said...

I added the enrollment data from the recent HCS AC email to the top.

Anonymous said...

Benjamin-- Can you add the HCS AC enrollment data to the second thread about the HCS AC email as well? It is confusing.

Doctor Hu said...

Very interesting. A total of 1062 HC enrolled students, up from 890 in the 2016-17 Annual Enrollment Report. No indication how many of those 1062 HC enrolled students have chosen the Ingraham IB option (maybe about 375?), which would also tell us how many currently attend Garfield (maybe about 687? + 375? HC IB = 1062).

One important detail that is confusing. The HCS AC chart says that the:

Ingraham attendance area includes 99 HC enrolled students attending either Garfield or Ingraham, as well as 80 HC eligible Ingraham AA students; and the

Garfield attendance area includes 184 HC enrolled students attending either Garfield or Ingraham, as well as 182 HC eligible Garfield AA students.

I could understand the statement about Ingraham if for example 19 neighborhood HC students are enrolled in the IB program (or Garfield), while 80 HC eligible attendance area students are in the regular non-pathway Ingraham high school program.

But for consistency that should also mean that there are 182 HC eligible neighborhood students attending Garfield who are not enrolled in the HC program! How could a HC eligible Garfield attendance area student attend Garfield without being enrolled in the HC cohort?

So are there 362 HC eligible students attending their home attendance area schools rather than Garfield or Ingraham IB? Or 442 including 80 Ingraham? Or 524 including 80 Ingraham and 182 Garfield?

Based on prior years the lowest 362 number for HC eligible students may be the most likely, but 442 also seems possible. The 524 number seems very inconsistent with prior years, and also very inconsistent with Garfield HS attendance area figures (184 HC enrolled + 182 HC eligible = 366 Garfield AA HC students 9-12! + HC enrolled students from all other attendance areas also).

Doctor Hu said...

Correcting obvious addition error:

"So are there 362 HC eligible students attending their home attendance area schools rather than Garfield or Ingraham IB? Or 442 including 80 Ingraham? Or *624* including 80 Ingraham and 182 Garfield?

Based on prior years the lowest 362 number for HC eligible students may be the most likely, but 442 also seems possible. The *624* number seems very inconsistent with prior years . . . ."

Anonymous said...

Dr. Hue says "But for consistency that should also mean that there are 182 HC eligible neighborhood students attending Garfield who are not enrolled in the HC program! How could a HC eligible Garfield attendance area student attend Garfield without being enrolled in the HC cohort."

I think you are seeing the numbers as exclusionary. 182/ 184 says to me that there are two dispersed HC students at either nova, CHS, Center School or another SPS HS but not IHS or GHS. They are NOT at UW/Robinson Center or (Lakeside and all the other for hire educational programs. That would be a much higher number of defectors I am sure). They all add up so they are not at GHS but not HC identified. I believe. I have looked at so many old numbers recently statement of facts are couched with sources of said facts.

What I do believe we see is that data shows the cohorts have grown 890/1060 so ~19%! It also shows that all the non cohort placements are at Ballard and Roosevelt with an average attendance of HC kids of 165+ kids. The five remaining non-pathway schools show they have currently on average less than 6 kids per school.

>6 kids per school on average choose their neighborhood school. Versus >165 kids per average in the non-hcc pathway schools. This is startling that folks can look at these numbers and say: GO FOR IT! Less than six versus more than 165. These families have voted with their feet in a shocking number. They have said no repeatedly year after year. The thought exchange experiment said proximity and equity, right? What about the Chief Sealth student who opted to instead to go to IHS last year. Let that sink in please. IB and IB perhaps IBx but SW to NE to meet the educational envelope. OK I guessed the motive in the last part, but we can look at some data and see trends. This seems to be the outlier but one thing that is constant is these families are voting with their feet.

What does 6 verses 165 mean you might ask. Well the district has an answer. They kept adding kids at IHS IBx/IB-HC until they got to 90 per year. Perfect! The HCS AC has advocated since the first painful but necessary middle school splits that 90 per year was a minimum for middle school. OK. Well then Madison was made a pathway school with 30 kids. That means everyone of your HC classes is with the same kids. If you want to do band and others are on an orchestra track you may be out of luck.

I gather that master schedules are like squeezing a balloon until they pop. GHS, BHS and RHS are popping kids out left and right to running start and private. NOW we are adding 2,000 seats! Hope can hold them as we need them right now. Choice is the glue that SPS should use to keep students engaged. 10 percent choice was the PLAN. Now we can do that!

NotTooLate

Anonymous said...


>6 kids per school on average choose their neighborhood school. Should read: >6 HCC kids per school on average chose their neighborhood school in the south west and east.


Oh and on a point of order, who thinks of WallyWorld is central Seattle? North and South are separated by bridges and I guess now tunnels. Staff chose to put Lincoln as central. It is not, unless you are a crow. I will argue Magnolia and most of QA are also west and not central even though they are south of the locks. Where do sps staff live? Maybe the most important question unasked. Naive? Board Director focused (Blandford and Geary)? Or just a shill for charters and for profit schools. I don't know but certainly not in real estate. Beautiful new townhome in the central district just off of 45th in the CD!

nottoolate

Benjamin Leis said...

I finally had some time to digest a bit of this data. I'm a bit startled by what the numbers are implying:

Basically, if correct in a huge shift from the previous year large numbers of kids maybe 80+ chose Roosevelt, 70+ chose Ballard over Garfield. That must mean a corresponding huge drop in the Garfield 9th grade cohort. (Ingraham capped so we know it has 90 HC 9th graders)

I put some inquires out but I wonder if anyone has anecdotal accounts at any of these schools.


Anonymous said...

"Basically, if correct in a huge shift from the previous year large numbers of kids maybe 80+ chose Roosevelt, 70+ chose Ballard over Garfield."

Yes that is what I have been hearing. This is why I have altered my opinion that we should try to support the HCS AC second proposal. I have concerns that even if a single pathway at Lincoln was started for 9/10, the data indicates we would definitely end up with many families still choosing Ballard, Ingraham & Roosevelt. I think it could make that group at Lincoln really small. Anecdotally speaking to NW & NE families they know BHS & Roosevelt (& Ingraham) are working. They are not likely to jump ship and send kids to Lincoln if made a pathway.
thoughts

Anonymous said...

In high school, its more about the class offerings and culture, less about the cohort. It's a chicken and egg situation, because you can't always get the classes without the cohort. RHS has lots of kids ready for advanced classes from the cohort, as well as kids who were either never in the cohort or were only cohorted in Middle School, so RHS has a broad selection of classes. This is not the case at Hale or some schools in SW and SE Seattle. To say the northend cohort should stay together because a principal or two doesn't support AL, or there are too few kids in SE Seattle to generate appropriate sequence of classes, does not work for many. Why don't the start building the regional link schools, or whatever they want to call it, in the northend, with the goal to build this in SW and SE once there is enough students to warrant that change?

Equity vs Equality

Doctor Hu said...

"So are there 362 HC eligible students attending their home attendance area schools rather than Garfield or Ingraham IB? Or 442 including 80 Ingraham?"

NotTooLate, thanks for your response. So ok then your answer is 442? According to Advanced Learning (1/2016), this compares with 177 HC eligible students attending neither the Garfield pathway nor the Ingraham IB option during 2015-16. For Ballard, the number of HC eligible students rose from 65 to 129, for Roosevelt from 69 to 155, for Nathan Hale from 18 to 22, for Ingraham from n/a to 80, for Franklin from 7 to 9, for Rainier Beach from 1 to 1, for West Seattle from 7 to 23, and for Chief Sealth from 10 to 14.

As Ben pointed out, these numbers seem to reflect a "huge shift" in the numbers of HC eligible students choosing their attendance area high schools Roosevelt and Ballard (and Ingraham IB) over the Garfield HC pathway.

With that in mind, the various HC pathway projections probably overestimate the extent to which a new North end HC pathway or pathways will actually provide capacity relief to Garfield, as the number of HC students crossing the Ship Canal already appears to be falling rapidly. Instead, the new North end HC pathway or pathways will more likely cause extra churn in the North end by redirecting students away from Ingraham IB. As I pointed out previously, in order to achieve cohort sizes of even 240 plus, in the next few years both Roosevelt and Ballard would each need over 100 students who would otherwise choose Ingraham, dropping the Ingraham IB enrollment by over 200, at least in the near term.

Doctor Hu said...

Here are all the proposed HCC Pathways numbers now updated to include the latest HCS AC figures (11/2017) and also the Enrollment Planning 5-Year Projections (10/2016):

Rise in in High School HCC numbers:

2015-16 figures: 518 + 299 HC IB = 817 HC enrolled + 177 HC eligible = 984 students 9-12 (AL 1/2016 Actual)

2016-17 figures: 559 + 331 HC IB = 890 HC enrolled + 233? HC eligible = 1123 students 9-12 (Dr Hu's Enrollment Report Calculations & Enrollment Planning 5-Year Projections 10/2016 Actual)

2017-18? figures: 601 + 373 HC IB = 974 HC enrolled + 233? HC eligible = 1207 students 9-12 (AL 6/2017 Actual?)
2017-18 figures: 752 + 363 HC IB = 1115 HC enrolled + [233?] HC eligible = 1348 students 9-12 (Enrollment Planning 5-Year Projections 10/2016)

2018-19? figures: 850? + 363? HC IB = 1213? HC enrolled + 442? HC eligible = 1655 students 9-12 (HCS AC 11/2017)
2018-19 figures: 914 + 363 HC IB = 1277 HC enrolled + [442?] HC eligible = 1719 students 9-12 (Enrollment Planning 5-Year Projections 10/2016)

2019-20 figures: 1101 + 393 HC IB = 1494 HC enrolled + [442?] HC eligible = 1936 students 9-12 (Enrollment Planning 5-Year Projections 10/2016)

2020-21 figures: 1348 + 398 HC IB = 1746 HC enrolled + [442?] HC eligible = 2188 students 9-12 (Enrollment Planning 5-Year Projections 10/2016)


2018-19? HCS AC figures (11/2017):
CURRENT PLAN
All-City Pathway . . . . . . . . . . 850 (+ 363 IB) + 442 HC eligible

Ingraham HC IB Option. . . . . . . . 363 HC IB
1213 HCC enrolled = 850 (+ 363 IB) + 442 HC eligible = 1655 total


2018-19? HCS AC figures (11/2017):
HCS ADVISORY 2 + 1 PLAN:
North Lincoln HC Pathway . . . . . . 437 students 9-12 = 785 - 348 HC IB + 386 HC eligible

South Garfield HC Pathway. . . . . . 413 students 9-12 = 428 - 15 HC IB + 56 HC eligible

Ingraham HC IB Option. . . . . . . . 363 HC IB
1213 HCC enrolled = 850 (+ 363 IB) + 442 HC eligible = 1655 total


2018-19? HCS AC figures (11/2017):
SPS STAFF 5 + 1 PLAN:
NW Regional Ballard HC Pathway . . . 145 students 9-12 = 304 - 160 HC IB + 209 HC eligible

NE Regional Roosevelt HC Pathway . . 145 students 9-12 = 330 - 188 HC IB + 177 HC eligible

Central Regional Garfield HC Pathway 325 students 9-12 = 335 (184 + [151?] Lincoln) - 8 HC IB

SE Regional Franklin HC Pathway. . . 130 students 9-12 = 136 - 5 HC IB + 19 HC eligible

SW Regional West Seattle HC Pathway. 105 students 9-12 = 108 - 2 HC IB + 37 HC eligible

Ingraham HC IB Option. . . . . . . . 363 HC IB
1213 HCC enrolled = 850 (+ 363 IB) + 442 HC eligible = 1655 total


Notes:

* The HCS AC estimates (11/2017) do not specify which school year they cover. Compared to the other available figures, it seems most likely they are projections for the coming school year 2018-19.

* For the proposed Central Regional Garfield HC Pathway, the HCS AC estimates 184 Garfield AA HC students PLUS "n/a Lincoln" HC students (ie, not available). For those uncounted Lincoln HC students, instead I add 151 Lincoln (ie, 89 Hamilton + 62 McClure, the counts of HC high school students from those middle school service areas in the 2016-17 Annual Enrollment Reports). This necessary adjustment raises the HCS AC estimate of total enrolled HC students in the Central Regional Garfield HC Pathway from 184 to 325, and the HCS AC estimate of total enrolled HC students districtwide from 1062 to 1213.

* The Advanced Learning Actual figures for 2015-16 include 177 HC eligible students at their own attendance area schools not enrolled in either the Garfield HC Pathway or the Ingraham IB Option. The HCS AC figures (for 2018-19?) appear to include 442 such HC eligible students. The Enrollment Planning 5-Year Projections for 2016-17 through 2020-21 do not include such HC eligible students, so for ease of comparison I have included likely estimates in those totals.

* All these numbers presumably include full-time Running Start students, who will not occupy seats in their respective HC pathway schools.

Anonymous said...

In the past 2 years, there has been an increase in the number of students choosing BHS or RHS over Garfield or IHS (though that's harder to parse as SPS has capped IBX). It seems guaranteed pathway options at both BHS and RHS may not only create more disruption for boundaries, but might have the unintended effect of reducing HC enrollment at IHS as well. It seems the 2+1 pathway estimates overestimate the Lincoln totals, and underestimate the impact on IB. If Lincoln were to become the north end pathway, I suspect a good number of students would still choose BHS and RHS.

Anonymous said...

" If Lincoln were to become the north end pathway, I suspect a good number of students would still choose BHS and RHS."

I believe this is true, as not one person I know would rather send their HC to Lincoln rather than BHS or Roosevelt.

BHS and RHS schools and students ALREADY have a pathway that is working in their neighborhood. They are not enticed to jump ship. Lincoln runs the risk of having too few students and that will end up splitting the north end far too much. We need to consider this fact.

However, I do think Ingraham IB will remain strong. The kids that choose IB will continue to choose IB, as AB and IB are very different. Ingraham has a private school info night and some Evergreen kids go on to Ingraham.
JK

Doctor Hu said...

Now that we have already reviewed the latest updated HCC high school pathways figures for the HCS AC 2 + 1 Plan and the SPS Staff 5 + 1 Plan, we must review the pathway cohort sizes of the newly proposed combined HCS AC 3 + 1 Plan.

It is important to realize that this new HCS AC 3 + 1 Plan does NOT merely split the proposed North end pathway while combining the three proposed South end pathways together. In sharp contrast to the SPS Staff 5 + 1 Plan, the HCS AC 3 + 1 Plan also proposes assigning the new Lincoln HC stream of students (ie, Magnolia, Queen Anne, Wallingford) to Ballard and Roosevelt, instead of Garfield. While the HCS AC projections do not include any estimate for "Lincoln n/a," those numbers are roughly 151 high school enrolled HC students living in the McClure (62) and Hamilton (89) middle school service areas (2016-17 figures).

By assigning those roughly 150 HC enrolled students to Ballard and Roosevelt (or Ingraham IB option), the HCS 3 + 1 Plan promotes proximity to schools, because most Magnolia and Queen Anne (McClure) students would travel to Ballard, and most Wallingford (Hamilton) students to Roosevelt, rather than through downtown or across the ship canal to Garfield. The HCS 3 + 1 Plan also brings the cohort sizes of the proposed new Ballard and Roosevelt HC pathways much closer to but still short of a minimum 240 students (unless those HC eligible students are all drawn away from the popular Ingraham IB option).

After reviewing the figures for the SPS Staff 5 + 1 Plan upthread, review and compare the following figures for the newly proposed HCS AC 3 + 1 Plan:

2018-19? HCS AC figures (11/2017):
HCS AC 3 + 1 PLAN:
NW Ballard HC Pathway . . . 220 students 9-12 = 304 + [76?] Lincoln - 160 HC IB + 209 HC eligible

NE Roosevelt HC Pathway . . 220 students 9-12 = 330 + [75?] Lincoln - 188 HC IB + 177 HC eligible

South Garfield HC Pathway. .413 students 9-12 = 428 - 15 HC IB + 65 HC eligible

Ingraham HC IB Option. . . .363 HC IB
1213 HCC enrolled = 850 (+ 363 IB) + 451 HC eligible = 1654 total

Anonymous said...

@Benjamin "I finally had some time to digest a bit of this data. I'm a bit startled by what the numbers are implying:Basically, if correct in a huge shift from the previous year large numbers of kids maybe 80+ chose Roosevelt, 70+ chose Ballard over Garfield. That must mean a corresponding huge drop in the Garfield 9th grade cohort. (Ingraham capped so we know it has 90 HC 9th graders)"

Are you reading that there were 80+ 2017 HC 9th at RHS and 70+ HC 2017 9th at BHS? How did you arrive at that number? I was told there were 47 HC 9th at BHS this year... But according to the data here, that number seems more in line with last year's January 2016 total.
-confused

Benjamin Leis said...

@confused - That was my first read and as I said I put some emails out to see if I was correct.

What I've found so far:

Ballard:
9th 46
10th 33
11th 28
12th 22

And some informal confirmation that RHS did balloon (but I don't know by how much.)

I'm still hoping to chase down the real system-wide data. But my working hypothesis now is slightly different. BHS has steadily been increasing. RHS may have ballooned, IHS is probably taking more kids from the NW than the NE and Garfield is down.

With any luck I'll have a real answer at some point rather than just this guess-work.

Anonymous said...

@Benjamin "I'm still hoping to chase down the real system-wide data." Thanks. Your hypothesis also seems like what I have been hearing anecdotally.
-Confused

Doctor Hu said...

As others point out, the most striking new information in the latest HCS AC numbers chart (11/2017) is the 155 HC eligible students who will already attend Roosevelt, and the 129 HC eligible students who will already attend Ballard, the two North end high schools now proposed by both the HCS AC and by SPS Staff as new HC pathway schools. And when those very large counts of resident HC students at Roosevelt and Ballard are counted in those those prospective HC pathways, the HCS AC 3 + 1 Plan would divide the HCC cohort into three roughly equal pathway cohorts, each optimally sized with about 90 or more students per grade.

To make this apples to apples comparison between the HCS AC 3 + 1 Plan and the SPS Staff 5 + 1 Plan, we must fully merge into the projected HC pathway enrollments all those HC eligible students who will already attend the proposed HC high school pathways at Ballard and Roosevelt. If and when those high schools become HC pathways, by definition all such students will all be "captured" and become HC enrolled without choice. Other HC eligible students who attend non-pathway high schools are still shown separately in the HC eligible numbers. Also remember that the HCS AC 3 + 1 Plan would assign over 150 Lincoln HC students (ie, 62 McClure + 89 Hamilton, 2016-17 figures) north to Ballard and Roosevelt, instead of south to Garfield.

Incorporating all those HC eligible students for a fair apples to apples comparison between the HCS AC 3 + 1 Plan and the SPS Staff 5 + 1 Plan, this is what we see:

HCS AC figures (11/2017):
HCS AC 3 + 1 PLAN:
NW Ballard HC Pathway. . . . . . . . 350 students 9-12 = 304 HC enrolled + [76?] Lincoln - 160 HC IB + 129 HC eligible (Ballard) = 349 HC enrolled + 80 HC eligible (80? Ingraham + ? Lincoln)

NE Roosevelt HC Pathway. . . . . . . 375 students 9-12 = 330 HC enrolled + [75?] Lincoln - 188 HC IB + 155 HC eligible (Roosevelt) = 372 HC enrolled + 22 HC eligible (22 Hale + ? Lincoln)

South Garfield HC Pathway. . . . . . 410 students 9-12 = 428 HC enrolled - 15 HC IB = 413 HC enrolled + 56 HC eligible (9 Franklin + 1 Rainier Beach + 14 Chief Sealth + 23 West Seattle + 9 Cleveland)

Ingraham HC IB Option. . . . . . . . 363 HC IB
1497 HCC enrolled = 1134 (+ 363 IB) = 1497 HC enrolled + 158 HC eligible = 1655 total


HCS AC figures (11/2017):
SPS STAFF 5 + 1 PLAN:
NW Regional Ballard HC Pathway . . . 270 students 9-12 = 304 HC enrolled - 160 HC IB + 129 HC eligible (Ballard) = 273 HC enrolled + 80 HC eligible (80? Ingraham + ? Lincoln)

NE Regional Roosevelt HC Pathway . . 295 students 9-12 = 330 HC enrolled - 188 HC IB + 155 HC eligible (Roosevelt) = 297 HC enrolled + 22 HC eligible (22 Hale + ? Lincoln)

Central Regional Garfield HC Pathway 330 students 9-12 = 335 HC enrolled (184 Garfield + [151?] Lincoln) - 8 HC IB

SE Regional Franklin HC Pathway. . . 140 students 9-12 = 136 HC enrolled - 5 HC IB + 9 HC eligible (Franklin) = 140 HC enrolled + 10 HC eligible (1 Rainier Beach + 9 Cleveland)

SW Regional West Seattle HC Pathway. 130 students 9-12 = 108 HC enrolled - 2 HC IB + 23 HC eligible (West Seattle) = 129 HC enrolled + 14 HC eligible (Chief Sealth)

Ingraham HC IB Option. . . . . . . . 363 HC IB
1529 enrolled = 1166 (+ 363 IB) = 1529 HC enrolled + 126 HC eligible = 1656 total

Doctor Hu said...

For those who are curious, here is a more detailed summary of the latest HCS AC pathway figures (11/2017) now fully reflecting the many HC eligible students who already attend Ballard and Roosevelt high schools and who would thus be "captured" by the proposed new NW and NE HC pathways:

HCS AC 3 + 1 PLAN:
NW Ballard HC Pathway. . . . . . . . 350 students 9-12 = 304 HC enrolled (205 Ballard + 99 Ingraham) + [76?] Lincoln - 160 HC IB + 129 HC eligible (Ballard) = 349 HC enrolled + 80 HC eligible (80? Ingraham + ? Lincoln)

NE Roosevelt HC Pathway. . . . . . . 375 students 9-12 = 330 HC enrolled (231 Roosevelt + 99 Nathan Hale) + [75?] Lincoln - 188 HC IB + 155 HC eligible (Roosevelt) = 372 HC enrolled + 22 HC eligible (22 Hale + ? Lincoln)

South Garfield HC Pathway. . . . . . 410 students 9-12 = 428 HC enrolled (184 Garfield + 95 Franklin + 41 Rainier Beach + 76 West Seattle + 32 Chief Sealth) - 15 HC IB = 413 HC enrolled + 56 HC eligible (9 Franklin + 1 Rainier Beach + 14 Chief Sealth + 23 West Seattle + 9 Cleveland)

Ingraham HC IB Option. . . . . . . . 363 HC IB
Rainier Beach HC IB . . . . . . n/a = 0 HC IB . . . ?
Chief Sealth HC IB. . . . . . . .n/a = 0 HC IB . . . ?

HCS AC 3 + 1 Plan:
1497 HCC enrolled = 1134 (+ 363 IB) = 1497 HC enrolled + 158 HC eligible = 1655 total


HCS AC figures (11/2017):
SPS STAFF 5 + 1 PLAN:
NW Regional Ballard HC Pathway . . . 270 students 9-12 = 304 HC enrolled (205 Ballard + 99 Ingraham) - 160 HC IB + 129 HC eligible (Ballard) = 273 HC enrolled + 80 HC eligible (80? Ingraham + ? Lincoln)

NE Regional Roosevelt HC Pathway . . 295 students 9-12 = 330 HC enrolled (231 Roosevelt + 99 Nathan Hale) - 188 HC IB + 155 HC eligible (Roosevelt) = 297 HC enrolled + 22 HC eligible (22 Nathan Hale + ? Lincoln)

Central Regional Garfield HC Pathway 330 students 9-12 = 335 HC enrolled (184 Garfield + [151?] Lincoln) - 8 HC IB = 327 HC enrolled

SE Regional Franklin HC Pathway. . . 140 students 9-12 = 136 HC enrolled (95 Franklin + 41 Rainier Beach) - 5 HC IB + 9 HC eligible (Franklin) = 140 HC enrolled + 10 HC eligible (1 Rainier Beach + 9 Cleveland)

SW Regional West Seattle HC Pathway. 130 students 9-12 = 108 HC enrolled (76 West Seattle + 32 Chief Sealth)- 2 HC IB + 23 HC eligible (West Seattle) = 129 HC enrolled + 14 HC eligible (Chief Sealth)

Ingraham HC IB Option. . . . . . . . 363 HC IB
Rainier Beach HC IB. . . . . . . n/a = 0 HC IB . . . ?
Chief Sealth HC IB . . . . . . . n/a = 0 HC IB . . . ?

SPS Staff 5 + 1 Plan:
1529 HCC enrolled = 1166 (+ 363 IB) = 1529 HC enrolled + 126 HC eligible = 1655 total