Tuesday, December 12, 2017

2017-2018 Cohort Demographics

I finally have a complete picture of what happened this year across the cohort. Hopefully this will help inform the discussion.

First there is an overall backdrop of cohort growth.  The 9th grade cohort is beginning of the bubble with the number of kids jumping  60% in a single year.  This can make individual increases at a school look a little deceptive. Numbers were up everywhere except Ingraham which is capped because the pool increased so much.

[2016-2017 cohort size data]


So where do the kids originate from now?



Things vary a bit year to year but the largest two draw zones  are Roosevelt and Ballard which are more than half of the entire cohort by themselves.   The north end of  Seattle actually has half the city's population anyway but if you add it up it makes up 68% of the kids in HC cohort.  This is key: if the north end stopped feeding Garfield entirely you'd be left with a pool of around 100-140 kids per year (depending on W. Seattle). This would be a shrinkage from recent years. [I need to find the historical numbers but I think within the last 10 the program was once about this size.]


So what's happening at each school:


First oddly the number of kids actually rose in the total cohort since last year's report. There is no evidence of private school flight.

As you can see Roosevelt had a dramatic shift +43, Ballard +13 but Garfield still was up +62.  This is the root of the alarm at the district level. Although the north end is pulling more kids than initially projected this is still not a sustainable level at Garfield.

Secondly: looking at 9th grade as a whole about  22% went to Ingraham 43% to Garfield and the rest stayed in their neighborhood. The pathways as a whole remained the majority choice. In the north end in specific, the retention rate rose to about 50% which is a new trend versus the previous years.

3 comments:

Doctor Hu said...

Thanks for digging deeper, Ben.

Ghost Mom said...

Yes, thanks for finding and sharing the information!

Doctor Hu said...

If HC pathways were established at each Seattle comprehensive high school (2017-18 numbers), the 10 HC pathway cohorts + 1 HC IB/IBX option would be:

* INGRAHAM AA PROPOSED HC PATHWAY = 5 HC/grade + 95 HC IB/grade = 20 HC + 379 HC IB/IBX option
96 Ingraham AA HC enrolled (76? Ingraham + 20? Garfield)
2 Ingraham AA HC eligible (2 other schools)
98 Ingraham AA HC enrolled/eligible
Ingraham HS 379 HC IB/IBX option includes 76 Ingraham AA HC, Ingraham would grow by 20 Garfield HC
2016-17, approx. 76? Ingraham AA HC enrolled at Ingraham HS among 379 HC enrolled in Ingraham IB/IBX option + 63? Hale AA + 104? Ballard AA + ? Lincoln AA + 118? Roosevelt AA + 9 Garfield AA + 4 Franklin AA + 2 Rainier Beach AA + 2 West Seattle AA + 1 Chief Sealth AA = 379 HC IB/IBX

* HALE AA PROPOSED HC PATHWAY = 14 HC/grade = 57 HC
99 Hale AA HC enrolled (63? Ingraham + 36? Garfield)
26 Hale AA HC eligible (21 Hale + 5 other schools)
125 Hale AA HC enrolled/eligible
Hale HS 21 HC eligible (+ 5 other schools HC eligible + 1 Middle College HC eligible), Hale would grow by 36 Garfield HC
2016-17, 79 Hale AA students including HC at Ingraham, 27 Hale AA HC at Garfield

* BALLARD AA PROPOSED HC PATHWAY = 56 HC/grade = 223 HC
201 Ballard AA HC enrolled (104? Ingraham + 97? Garfield)
128 Ballard AA HC eligible (126 Ballard + 2 other schools)
329 Ballard AA HC enrolled/eligible
Ballard HS 126 HC eligible (+ 2 other schools HC eligible), Ballard would grow by 97 Garfield HC
2016-17, 129 Ballard AA students including HC at Ingraham, 75 Ballard AA HC at Garfield

* LINCOLN AA PROPOSED HC PATHWAY = ? HC/grade = ? HC

* ROOSEVELT AA PROPOSED HC PATHWAY = 66 HC/grade = 264 HC
227 Roosevelt AA HC enrolled (118? Ingraham + 109? Garfield)
160 Roosevelt AA HC eligible (155 Roosevelt + 5 other schools)
387 Roosevelt AA HC enrolled/eligible
Roosevelt HS 155 HC eligible (+ 5 other schools HC eligible), Roosevelt would grow by 109 Garfield HC
2016-17, 151 Roosevelt AA students including HC at Ingraham, 81 Roosevelt AA HC at Garfield

* GARFIELD AA PROPOSED HC PATHWAY = 43 HC/grade = 170 HC
179 Garfield AA HC enrolled (170 Garfield + 9 Ingraham)
3 Garfield AA HC eligible (3 other schools)
182 Garfield AA HC enrolled/eligible
Garfield HS 652 HC (+ 12 Center School HC eligible + 10 Nova HC eligible), Garfield would shrink by 482 HC
2016-17, 9 Garfield AA students including HC at Ingraham, 593 HC enrolled in Garfield pathway

* FRANKLIN AA PROPOSED HC PATHWAY = 24 HC/grade = 94 HC
89 Franklin AA HC enrolled (85 Garfield + 4 Ingraham)
18 Franklin AA HC eligible (9 Franklin + 9 Cleveland)
107 Franklin AA HC enrolled/eligible
Franklin HS 9 HC eligible (+ 9 Cleveland HC eligible), Franklin would grow by 85 Garfield HC
2016-17, 4 Franklin AA students including HC at Ingraham, 87 Franklin AA HC at Garfield

* RAINIER BEACH AA PROPOSED HC PATHWAY = 8 HC/grade = 32 HC
34 RB AA HC enrolled (32 Garfield + 2 Ingraham)
4 RB AA HC eligible (4 other schools)
38 RB AA HC enrolled/eligible
Rainier Beach HS 0 HC eligible (+ 4 other schools HC eligible), Rainier Beach would grow by 32 Garfield HC
2016-17, 2 Rainier Beach AA students including HC at Ingraham, 42 Rainier Beach AA HC at Garfield

* WEST SEATTLE AA PROPOSED HC PATHWAY = 23 HC/grade = 93 HC
75 WS AA HC enrolled (73 Garfield + 2 Ingraham)
21 WS AA HC eligible (20 West Seattle + 1 another school)
96 WS AA HC enrolled/eligible
West Seattle HS 20 HC eligible (+ 1 other school HC eligible), West Seattle would grow by 73 Garfield HC
2016-17, 2 West Seattle AA students including HC at Ingraham, 73 West Seattle AA HC at Garfield

* CHIEF SEALTH AA PROPOSED HC PATHWAY = 11 HC/grade = 43 HC
31 Sealth AA HC enrolled (30 Garfield + 1 Ingraham)
13 Sealth AA HC eligible (13 Chief Sealth)
44 Sealth AA HC enrolled/eligible
Chief Sealth HS 13 HC eligible, Sealth would grow by 30 Garfield HC
2016-17, 1 Sealth AA student including HC at Ingraham, 22 Sealth AA HC at Garfield

1 nonresident/unknown AA HC eligible at school other than Garfield or Ingraham

Total 1407 HC enrolled/eligible